The truth is you just can't. You simply do not know if you're going to get the job until the very moment you actually start to work on the clock for that employer. And it's not worth even thinking about.
Few interviewers are going to be anything but positive and cheerful with interviewees. One reason is because most interviewees are cheerful and positive, who wants to be a wet blanket around such a person. But another big reason is that no one wants to be the bearer of bad news, no one wants to be the one to even suggest to an interviewee, 'Sorry, but we can't use you.' It's unpleasant. So even if the interviewee is bombing bigger than life, it's just natural that interviewers stay positive.
Unfortunately this often gives false hope.
It's sad to say, but I know people personally who have gotten all the way through to filling out W2's, way past actually being offered the job and accepting, and had the rug pulled out from under them regarding the job. You simply do not know if they are going to hire you or will hire you unless/until you actually start doing work on the clock for that employer.
The best advise you can take is to just not get your hopes up too high about any interview or potential job. Especially after you interview and send in your thank you notes, there is absolutely nothing more you can do. So it's not worth getting your hopes up.
Don't play the game of trying to figure out where you stand in terms of being a candidate for a job. You have no idea of your competition and you really have little idea what the actual hiring process is going to be. So just let it go and not worry about trying to tell if they will hire you or not.
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